Sample interview questions: How do you assess the accuracy and reliability of your economic forecasts?
Sample answer:
Accuracy assessment:
- Ex-post accuracy analysis: Comparing actual outcomes to past forecasts to evaluate forecast accuracy over time.
- Forecast error measures: Quantifying the magnitude and direction of forecast errors using metrics such as mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, or root mean squared error.
- Decomposition of forecast errors: Breaking down forecast errors into bias, variance, and noise components to identify sources of forecast inaccuracy.
Reliability assessment:
- Stability of forecast performance: Assessing the consistency of forecast accuracy across different time periods, economic conditions, and forecast horizons.
- Robustness checks: Evaluating the sensitivity of forecasts to changes in model specifications, data sources, and economic assumptions.
Source: https://hireabo.com/job/7_4_39/Economic%20Statistician